Which teams are most likely to sign the top remaining free agents?

Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to spring training in just over a week, but there’s still plenty of offseason business that remains unfinished. There are still four free agents that could plausibly land a long-term, nine-figure deal: Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman. There are also plenty of other free agents who should be in line for significant short-term deals, such as J.D. Martinez, Gary Sánchez, Brandon Belt, Whit Merrifield, Tim Anderson, Amed Rosario, Gio Urshela, Michael Lorenzen, Jorge Soler, Tommy Pham, Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall, Hyun Jin Ryu and many more.

Many of those players, including all of the big four, are represented by Scott Boras. He has a reputation for letting his players linger on the market, even if that means pushing things into March or even into the regular season. This tactic has yielded mixed results over the years but there have been many instances of significant deals getting done at this late period of the offseason.

It seems that the ongoing bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group is having an impact on this winter’s market. Many clubs are trying to cut back payroll due to uncertainty around their broadcast revenue, which is having a domino effect on various players. For example, the Padres’ TV deal collapsed last year and they are now looking to get under the competitive balance tax for 2024. That means they have been less of a factor in the free agent market. Also, they traded Juan Soto to the Yankees to free up payroll, which means that the Yanks didn’t need to upgrade their outfield via free agency.

So, who still has powder dry? Let’s take a broad look at the clubs and see where the payrolls are, compared to previous spending or where the decision makers/reporters have said it will go this year. Payroll data and estimates courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource.

• Over Top CBT Tier: Mets, Dodgers, Yankees

The fourth and final tier of the CBT is $297M this year and each of these three clubs is comfortably beyond it. The Mets are at $322M, the Yankees at $305M and the Dodgers at $308M. Each of the three is also third-time payors, which comes with escalating tax rates. Any further spending from these clubs now comes with a 110% rate, meaning it would cost them more than double the amount going to the player.

That doesn’t mean they can’t fit in another deal. For instance, the Mets were already well over the top line last year when they agreed to a deal with Carlos Correa. That deal eventually fell apart due to medical concerns, but it shows that the luxury tax is different than a hard salary cap and teams can continue soaring to new spending heights if they so choose.

The Mets aren’t likely to do something huge in the coming weeks, as they are doing a semi-reset and have limited themselves to short-term deals this offseason. The Yankees and Dodgers each have loaded lineups but questionable rotation depth. However, the Dodgers have avoided long-term deals for pitchers historically, while the Yankees reportedly pivoted to Marcus Stroman when they balked at the asking prices of Snell and Montgomery.

• Higher Than They’ve Been Before: Braves, Astros, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Rays

Any of these clubs could decide to spend some more, but they are currently set to be in record territory and they would need to be willing to push things even farther than they already have.

Atlanta’s CBT number is currently estimated at $270M. That’s well beyond last year’s $246M figure and just shy of the third tier, which is $277M. Going over that third line comes with increased taxation but also requires a club’s highest pick in the next draft to be pushed back 10 spots. Atlanta isn’t generally a huge player in free agency anyway, preferring to extend its incumbent players while being aggressive on the trade market.

The Astros have gone near to the tax line under Jim Crane but have generally avoided going over. Their only previous season going beyond it was 2020 when the penalties were eliminated during the shortened season. They came into the offseason with their CBT number hovering right around the border, which seemed to limit their activity until a season-ending injury for Kendall Graveman pushed them to get a deal done with Josh Hader. They’re now at $255M, just shy of the second tier, which is $257M.

The Blue Jays paid the tax for the first time last year, getting their CBT number up to $246M. They are now at $251M, only a bit higher, but the pure payroll is a big jump. They spent $214M last year and already have $240M in commitments for 2024.

The Diamondbacks have a franchise-high payroll of $132M, which was set back in 2018. Last year was a financial mixed bag, as they made a surprise run to the World Series and netted some extra playoff revenue but their TV deal also collapsed. They’ve been fairly active this winter and are set to start the season with a payroll of $142M.

Despite a cost-cutting trade of Tyler Glasnow, the Rays are still in uncharted waters for them. Their $93M payroll would be a franchise high, with Cot’s having their franchise record as $84M from 2022.

• Pretty Close To Last Year: Phillies, Rangers, Cardinals, Mariners, Nationals, Guardians, Pirates

Each of these clubs is currently within the ballpark of where they were last year. Perhaps that means they are content with their current level, but deciding to make a jump is always a possibility.

The Phillies had a $246M payroll and $263M CBT number last year, with those numbers now at $238M and $253M. Presumably, they wouldn’t want to cross the third CBT line and have their top draft pick pushed back 10 spots. Since that line is $277M this year, they could have some room there, especially with a creatively structured deal.

The Rangers have been very aggressive in recent offseasons but came into this winter with some trepidation. Despite just winning the World Series, their TV deal seemed to be in danger of collapsing. The latest reporting indicates their relationship with Diamond Sports Group could continue for at least one more year, though likely with reduced fees coming to the club. Their payroll and CBT were $214M and $237M last year, with those numbers now at $221M and $243M for 2024.

The Cards had a payroll of $178M last year and are at $179M this year. They may push that a bit further to get another reliever but seem fairly content with their rotation and position player mix. The Mariners will reportedly end up above last year, but not by too much thanks to their own TV revenue situation. Their payroll was at $140M last year and is at $135M at the moment. The Nationals were at $109M last year and are set for a bump to $125M this year. They are still nowhere near their franchise highs but they’re unlikely to get back into that range while still rebuilding. A big strike next winter when Patrick Corbin’s deal is off the books would make more sense. The Guardians were at $98M last year and are at $96M now. The Pirates have gone from $70M to $79M.

• Some Wiggle Room To The Tax Threshold: Padres, Giants, Cubs

Each of these clubs is within striking distance of the lowest CBT threshold and probably won’t cross it. The Padres have been cutting spending this winter due to their TV deal collapsing and their past aggression putting them out of whack with the league’s debt-to-service ratio rule. Their CBT number is at $215M, which gives them some room to work with before getting to the $237M base threshold. But they arguably need two outfielders, two starting pitchers and a designated hitter, so they may have to spread their money around.

The Giants haven’t paid the tax in recent years but still have some space before they would get there this year. Their CBT number is currently at $208M, with the base threshold at $237M this year. Even if they want to avoid going over the line, they could still add $25M or so while still leaving a bit of room for midseason additions. Many predicted them as a landing spot for Bellinger earlier in the offseason but they signed Jung Hoo Lee to be their everyday center fielder. Chapman could still fit at third base, with J.D. Davis then moving into a part-time/DH role or ending up on the trading block. The rotation still has plenty of question marks behind Logan Webb, so either Snell or Montgomery would be a sensible target as well.

The Cubs are in a somewhat similar position, having not paid the tax in recent years. Their CBT number is currently a hair below $207M, putting them about $30M shy of the base threshold. They could bring Bellinger back after enjoying his bounceback season in 2023, but they may be loath to block outfield prospects like Pete Crow-Armstrong. Third base is a possible fit for Chapman, as he would be a clear upgrade over Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom. The rotation has a decent front four with Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga and Kyle Hendricks. They could leave the fifth spot open for an audition between Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad, Caleb Kilian and others, but all those guys have options and limited experience. Adding Snell or Montgomery could push them into depth roles to be called upon during the season as injuries arise.

• Should Have Lots Of Room: Angels

The Angels were over the tax line in 2023 but managed to limbo under the line late in the year. As they fell out of contention, they put various players on waivers to give away their contracts and also put Max Stassi on the restricted list as he was away from the club while his son was in NICU after being born three months premature.

Those shenanigans worked in getting the club under the line, but that’s beside the point of this post. The key takeaway from this exercise is that they are willing to get near and even cross the line under the right circumstances. Even though Shohei Ohtani is now gone, general manager Perry Minasian has clearly stated the club still plans to compete this year. To that end, they have bolstered their club by spending on the bullpen, having signed Robert Stephenson, Matt Moore, Luis García and Adam Cimber.

Even with those deals, the club still has a huge amount of space before getting near the $237M base threshold of the CBT. They are currently just over $187M, giving them roughly $50M of space to work with even if they want to stay under the line to start the year. The rotation was a disappointment in 2023 and adding to their current group with someone like Snell or Montgomery would make sense. The current projection is to have Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson and Chase Silseth as their starters. There’s talent in that group but clear room for improvement as well. Silseth still has options and less than 130 innings pitched above the Double-A level, so bumping him to sixth on the depth chart would be defensible.

On the position player side of things, the Halos technically have a third baseman in Anthony Rendon, but he’s about to turn 34 and hasn’t played 60 games in a season since 2019. Having two players on huge deals for the same position wouldn’t be the best use of resources, but Chapman could push Rendon into a regular designated hitter role now that Ohtani has vacated that spot. In the outfield, Bellinger could take a corner and occasionally spell Trout in center. Those two, along with Aaron Hicks and Taylor Ward, could plausibly share the three outfield jobs and the DH role, while pushing Mickey Moniak into the fourth outfielder gig.

• Should Have Some Room: Twins, Brewers, Marlins, Royals, Athletics

The Twins have had some payroll issues due to their TV revenue situation but they recently cleared some space with the Jorge Polanco trade. They reportedly want to be in the $125-140M range and are currently at $118M. The resurrection of Diamond Sports Group might allow them to keep that relationship going for one more year, so perhaps they could push things to the higher end of that range. They were at $159M last year but have been planning on a cut due to the TV revenue situation.

The Brewers had a $126M payroll last year and are just at $117M right now. They generally aren’t huge free-agent spenders but made a notable addition with the recent signing of Rhys Hoskins. The Marlins were at $110M last year but have been extremely quiet this offseason. New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix hasn’t signed any free agents yet, so the payroll is at just $97M. The Royals have made a huge jump from last year, going from $91M to $113M. General manager J.J. Picollo has suggested the club is fairly content with the current roster, but then they signed Adam Frazier. Perhaps more small moves could be coming since they’ve had the payroll as high as $143M in the past.

As for the Athletics, they will spend on something. General manager David Forst said he expects a higher payroll than last year. They were at $59M in 2023 but are only at $40M for the upcoming season, though Alex Wood will bump that slightly when the details of his deal are revealed. Despite their aggressive rebuild, they spent on guys like Aledmys Díaz, Jace Peterson, Trevor May, Shintaro Fujinami, Jesús Aguilar and Drew Rucinski last winter. With the club departing Oakland after this year and headed for another last-place finish, it won’t be the first choice for many free agents but it could be a fallback plan for some.

• Below Past Levels But Might Not Spend: Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, Reds, Rockies, White Sox

These clubs are all below their franchise highs in terms of spending, but there are other reasons to suggest a big deal might not be forthcoming in the next few weeks. The Orioles have had payrolls as high as $164M, but that was back in 2017 when Peter Angelos was still running things. Since then, his son John has taken over as “control person”. The club underwent an aggressive rebuild, which naturally dropped the payroll, but they haven’t changed their spending habits even though the rebuild is over.

They won the American League East last year but still haven’t given a multi-year deal to a free agent since Alex Cobb in 2018. Their most significant signing this winter has been a one-year pact for Craig Kimbrel. This week, it was reported that the club is being sold from the Angelos family to a new investment group, but that still requires league approval. That could change the club’s behavior down the road but it’s unclear if it will have an immediate impact.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, have been dialing back the spending in recent years and don’t seem to be bringing it back. Despite the “full throttle” comments from chairman Tom Werner earlier in the offseason, CEO Sam Kennedy recently admitted that the club will probably have a lower payroll than last year. Broadly speaking, it seems the club is in wait-and-see mode as it evaluates some younger players before deciding on a path forward.

The Tigers and Reds have each been active in upgrading their rosters for the upcoming season, but neither is in record territory. Thanks to mega contracts for Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto expiring, each club has been able to spend on free agents without setting any franchise records. The Tigers had a payroll of $200M as recently as 2017, but their signings of Kenta Maeda, Jack Flaherty, Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller (plus the acquisition of Mark Canha) have only pushed them to $108M for this year. The Reds were at $127M in 2019 but are only at $100M now, despite signing Jeimer Candelario, Frankie Montas, Nick Martínez, Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter. But Detroit’s president of baseball operations Scott Harris has spoken many times about the perils of making bold moves too early, something the club knows too well after their deals for Eduardo Rodríguez and Javier Báez didn’t work out in 2022. As for the Reds, this year’s payroll is already a bump from last year’s $87M and they don’t have huge holes on the roster.

The Rockies and White Sox are each below their past spending levels but both clubs are coming off disastrous seasons and aren’t well-positioned to make a bold strike. There would be plenty of room for short-term veteran additions, however.