Hot seat rankings: Which NFL head coaches should start to worry?

Seven games into the 2023 NFL season, and it’s becoming more clear which head coaches may be operating on borrowed time. 

While Bill Belichick’s seat has cooled off in New England, here’s a look at the five coaches with the hottest seats a little under halfway through the year:

1. Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers

The third-year head coach is no doubt coaching for his job this season, and if the Chargers miss the playoffs, he’ll likely be unemployed within hours of the regular season ending. Staley’s defensive mind landed him the Chargers job in the first place, so why do they rank next-to-last in total defense this season with a unit anchored by edge-rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. and safety Derwin James?

Staley is under the most pressure this season because of his lack of success compared to the talent he has. Los Angeles boasts a top-10 quarterback in Justin Herbert, one of the NFL perennial leaders in yards from scrimmage in Austin Ekeler and a five-time Pro Bowl receiver in Keenan Allen. Yet Staley is barely over .500 as a head coach (21-19). His seat is scalding.

2. Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears

Eberflus has just five wins in a season-and-a-half. Neither he nor offensive coordinator Luke Getsy appear to know how to use quarterback Justin Fields properly, and Chicago’s offense is a hot mess.

Its run game is wildly inconsistent, the pass game doesn’t pose much of a threat aside from a solid first season from receiver D.J. Moore and the offensive line is has yielded 98 pressures, 72 hurries, 27 sacks and 14 QB hits through seven games. With potentially two top-five draft picks next year, the Bears might consider hitting reset with a new QB and new head coach.

3. Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders

It might be time to admit that McDaniels is a really good offensive coordinator but he just isn’t head-coaching material. In his three full years as a head coach, McDaniels doesn’t have one winning season, and the Raiders are 3-4 this year with one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

Vegas is wasting Davante Adams’ prime and the team ran Derek Carr out of town only to give Jimmy Garoppolo, who can’t stay healthy and has thrown seven touchdowns against eight interceptions, a three-year, $67.5 million contract. The Raiders are a mess from the top down, and McDaniels could be the scapegoat if they don’t make the playoffs this season.

4. Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons

Yes, the Falcons are one of just six teams in the NFC with a winning record. And yes, they have the No. 3 defense in the NFL and are on the cusp of having a top-10 offense as well. But Desmond Ridder isn’t the long-term answer at QB, and the Falcons have given more carries to Tyler Allgeier than rookie phenom Bijan Robinson, who’s rushed for 103 more yards. 

Not to mention Atlanta is failing to maximize the talents of tight end Kyle Pitts, who has just four touchdown catches in 34 games, and receiver Drake London — both of whom are former top-10 picks. Smith has won just 43.9% of his games in two-plus seasons in Atlanta. The Falcons have several young, talented players to build around. Maybe Smith just isn’t the guy to lead that endeavor?

5. Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers

OK, hear me out. LaFleur is just 10-13 over the last season-and-a-half, and some are starting to question if the 39-10 record he had in his first three seasons was simply because he had Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball to Davante Adams. 

Green Bay is just 2-4 in its first season with Jordan Love as the starting QB — a player LaFleur drafted 26th overall just three years ago, who ranks 22nd in passing yards per game, 28th in passer rating and 33rd in completion percentage. If the Packers decide to draft a new quarterback in 2024, they might want to bring in some new blood to develop him.